Bay Area

Market Overview

• San Francisco commanded the Bay Area with exceptional value expansion in March, as single-family properties climbed more than 18% and condominiums surged more than 27% on an annual basis.

• Availability levels maintain positions substantially beneath last year throughout every segment of the Bay Area, with annual reductions spanning from roughly 10% in Silicon Valley to more than 41% in North Bay markets.

• Single-family properties are transacting at an exceptional momentum, with the typical listing in Santa Clara County moving in merely 8 days and San Francisco properties transacting for nearly 23% over the original asking value.

• The Bay Area's single-family property market overwhelmingly maintains seller-favorable status, while the condominium sector is providing greater equilibrium, with several East Bay and North Bay counties registering decisively in buyer-favorable territory.

San Francisco captures attention as values diverge throughout the region

March produced a broad spectrum of value movement throughout the Bay Area, with San Francisco distinctly commanding performance. The median single-family property in San Francisco transacted for $2,150,000, representing an 18.24% annual increase, while the condominium sector registered a striking 27.17% surge to a median transaction value of $1,357,500. Silicon Valley witnessed more inconsistent outcomes, as San Mateo County single-family properties climbed 5.45% annually to $2,175,000, while Santa Clara County retreated 1.65% to $2,080,188 and Santa Cruz County declined 7.14% to $1,300,000.

East Bay markets remained exceptionally steady on the single-family side, with Alameda County essentially unchanged at $1,357,000 and Contra Costa County declining just 1.14% to $870,000. North Bay markets presented a more demanding narrative, as Napa County single-family properties declined 10.61% to $885,000 and Marin and Solano Counties registered moderate retreats. Nevertheless, Sonoma County provided a positive development, registering a 1.16% annual advance to $875,000. The condominium sector demonstrated characteristic volatility, with double-digit retreats in several counties offset by substantial gains in Santa Cruz and Napa Counties.

Availability maintains severely constrained conditions throughout the Bay Area

Despite the arrival of the spring transaction season, availability levels throughout the Bay Area maintain positions substantially beneath where they stood a year ago. North Bay markets continue experiencing the most acute shortage, with single-family property availability declining 41.16% annually and condominium availability declining 31.06%. San Francisco trails closely, with single-family availability declining 34.46% and condominium availability declining 34.30%, producing fewer than 650 properties available for transaction in the entire municipality.

East Bay markets have witnessed single-family availability decline by 22.23% and condominium availability contract by 17.60%, while Silicon Valley completes the scenario with single-family availability declining 9.68% and condominium availability declining just 5.30%. The encouraging development is that new listings and completed transactions are accelerating throughout the region as the spring market intensifies. Silicon Valley witnessed new single-family listings advance 34.14% monthly, and most North Bay counties registered meaningful monthly improvements as well. Nevertheless, with buyer demand still exceeding new supply in most markets, availability levels are positioned to remain compressed in the near term.

Single-family properties are transacting rapidly throughout the region

The transaction momentum for single-family properties throughout the Bay Area is exceptionally remarkable as the spring market accelerates into high gear. In Santa Clara County, the typical property is transacting in merely 8 days, while San Mateo County properties are moving in 10 days. San Francisco single-family properties are transacting in just 12 days, and East Bay listings are completing in 12 and 13 days in Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, respectively.

North Bay markets witnessed substantial monthly improvements, with Marin County single-family properties transacting in just 15 days, declining 31.82% from February, and Sonoma, Solano, and Napa Counties all registering double-digit monthly reductions in marketing duration. The condominium sector presents a more varied scenario. San Francisco condominiums are moving at an exceptional 14-day momentum, a remarkable 46.15% annual reduction, while San Mateo County condominiums are also moving more expeditiously than last year. Nevertheless, Santa Cruz County condominiums are requiring an average of 96 days to transact, and Santa Clara County condominiums are requiring 76.92% additional market duration than they were last March.

Sellers maintain advantageous positioning as spring intensifies

When determining whether a market is a buyers' market or a sellers' market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller's market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers' markets.

The single-family property market maintains decisively seller-favorable territory throughout nearly the entire Bay Area. San Francisco registers merely 1.0 months of supply, while San Mateo County maintains 1.3 months and Santa Clara County maintains 1.5 months. Alameda County maintains 1.6 months of supply, Contra Costa County and Marin County both register 1.8 months, Solano County at 2.2 months, Sonoma County at 2.3 months, and Santa Cruz County at 2.5 months. Napa County remains the singular exception at 5.5 months, though this still represents a 27.63% annual reduction. 

The condominium sector continues providing greater flexibility for buyers. San Francisco has compressed substantially to just 2.3 months of supply, transitioning from a buyer-favorable market last year to a robust seller-favorable market currently. Sonoma County registers 3 months, San Mateo County at 3 months, Marin County at 3.2 months, Solano County at 3.5 months, Santa Clara County at 3.6 months, and both Alameda and Contra Costa Counties at 3.7 months. Santa Cruz County and Napa County complete the configuration at 4.1 and 5 months, respectively. With single-family availability remaining constrained throughout, sellers in that segment will continue enjoying meaningful leverage as we advance deeper into the spring transaction season.